An American friend recently emailed me, asking, “What is the deal with the 5 dudes with the 3 white vans by the [UK] RAF base?” Who knows, I thought. Trump? Rubio? Burnham? Allah? Do any of them know? I replied as follows:

First, a week ago today, i.e., 27 September 2026, five men were arrested skulking in a wood close to RAF Fairford, a UK military base used by the USAF to house and launch long-range B-52 bombers and U2 reconnaissance aircraft, notably against Iran since February 2026. The men, all UK nationals in their 20s and wearing face-concealing balaclavas, driving three white vans were spotted by a local farmer who called 999 (our equivalent to your 911) and were subsequently arrested by the Gloucestershire police. The press speculated that the vans were loaded with improvised explosive devices but later amended the statement to say that ‘a quantity of petrol’ had been found and removed. The BBC added that one of the five men had also called 999 an hour before the farmer called. Why did he call and what did he say? Maybe he was taken short and needed to know where the nearest public toilet was in the nearby sleepy Cotswoldian village of Whelford. If that was the reason, he could have done what bears do. The men were in a wood, and it was very early on Sunday morning. Apart from early-rising dog walkers, there would be nobody around to observe his activities behind the bush.

Once in custody, the men were given a warm meal, dressed in comfortable clothes, allowed to phone a friend, and gently questioned about their purpose. Then, to everybody’s amazement, they were let go on bail. “What the f***!” we all said in unison. “I’m surprised they’ve been released,” said Donald Trump. (Why did Trump express an opinion?) “It’s fine,” responded the head honcho of Gloucestershire police. “Our decision is grounded in experience and strategy. We know where they’re going, and we will keep an eye on them lest they transgress. Plus, we’ve confiscated their balaclavas.”

One day later, our newly-minted Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, chaired a Cabinet Office Briefing in Room A, abbreviated to COBRA**, and declared that, “There are strong indications that Iran had played a part in this incident,” but provided no further evidence. “Quite right,” harrumphed the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. “Clearly, foreign actors are involved in this event,” he added. He then muttered an aside to an aide that might have been, “Let’s bomb the bastards again!” but, in fact, was “Let’s bomb the bar snacks again,” as he looked at the snacks on offer in the White House.

** All COBRA meetings take place in room A, never in room B or room C. Nobody can pronounce COBRB or COBRC.

The plot thickened further when the news media announced two days ago that a 25-year-old dual-nationality UK-Iranian man had been apprehended in London, given a warm meal, clothed in comfortable clothing, allowed to phone a friend, gently interrogated as to his role in the event, and, as is now the pattern, let go on bail. (Our prisons are currently maxed out and we are releasing everyone in jail except murderers, pro-Palestine Action activists, and those who did not vote Labour at the last election.) This new suspect, sans balaclava, was last seen drinking beer with five friends in a pub in East London, the jangling of their ankle bracelets clearly heard above the general pub hubbub.

So what’s it all about? What do Burnham, Trump, Rubio, and the head honcho of the Gloucestershire police know that they’re concealing from us? Are the Iranians really involved in this incident? The Iranian embassy in London has categorically rejected and strongly condemned what it called “unfounded and malicious speculations” linking Iran to the incident. Is the ambassador speaking with a forked tongue, or is he lying through his teeth? Or is he, by some diplomatic miracle, telling the truth?

Or were the five men attempting to steal aviation-quality diesel fuel from RAF Fairford? Diesel has just hit the £2/litre barrier, up from around £1.40/litre twelve months ago, and is now more precious than gold, crypto, and Harry Kane’s sweaty football shirt? (England’s football captain, Harry Kane, scored twice in last night’s Nations League 7-0 win over Croatia. His sweaty shirt is now a highly prized collector’s item.)

Only time will reveal the truth.

(^_^)